We've shared 500+ startup ideas through Half Baked. But we've never shown you what happens next. That changes today. Introducing Fully Baked, our Sunday newsletter where we take one idea from our archives and validate it from start to finish. Real spend. Real data. Real verdict. 100% free. Let’s get into it.
Welcome to Fully Baked, the newsletter serving up startup ideas as incredible as Alex Honnold scaling Taipei 101 without a rope 🧗♂
In today's edition:
💡 Why 70% of people quit calorie tracking (and how to fix it)
🔬 We validated this idea - here's what we found
🚀 The go-to-market playbook for this app
🤑 Can you make any money doing this?
⚔ How the competitive landscape looks
❓ Our verdict: is this a go or no-go idea
Let's goooo 🚀
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🗣️ Voice-First Calorie Tracker
Snack to the future
Available domain: Calchat.com
The Problem: Here's a stat that should worry every fitness app founder: 70% of people who start tracking calories quit within 30 days. The reason? Logging is a pain. MyFitnessPal makes you search through a database of 50 options for "chicken breast." Cal AI's photo feature struggles with anything that isn't a single item on a plate. The $1.75B calorie tracking market is massive, but retention is terrible. What if you could just say what you ate and have AI do the rest? Like Wispr Flow, but for calorie tracking? Here's what we're thinking.
The Solution:
💡 The Idea: A voice-first calorie tracker that lets you say what you ate and instantly logs accurate calories and macros.
🛠️ Product:
Download the app and set your goals. Say "Lunch: chicken burrito, no sour cream, plus an iced latte" and watch it log instantly.
AI parses natural speech, estimates portions, learns your "usuals," and adapts to your accent over time.
Optional photo confirmation, quick voice edits ("make that half"), and smart nudges when you're off track.
🧑💻 Prototyping: Try the demo | Get the demo prompt
🗣️ The One Thing All Great Founders Do
What's one thing all great founders do? Talk to customers. Constantly.
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Whether you're validating an idea or closing your first 6-figure deal - nothing slips through the cracks. And don't forget, the giveaway closes in 24 hours. Tick tock.
🔬 Validation
🔍 Desktop Research (2 hours of Googling + reading App Store reviews)
The nutrition apps market is valued at $5B in 2023 growing to $14B by 2033 at 11.5% per year. MyFitnessPal has 220M+ registered users but voice logging is premium-only, US-only, English-only.
70% of users abandon diet apps within the first two weeks if logging is too complex. We validated this by reading 50+ 1-star MyFitnessPal reviews - "too tedious" and "takes forever" appeared constantly.
📋 Survey (127 responses via Pollfish, $1.10/response, ~$140 total)
73% quit because logging took too long, ahead of inaccuracy (41%) and lack of motivation (38%). We targeted US adults 25-45 who'd used a calorie app in the past year.
61% said they would try voice-first, 44% would pay $5-10/month - strong intent among users who've abandoned 2+ apps.
📣 Smoke Test ($250 Meta ads over 5 days to a landing page, targeting "fitness" + "weight loss" interests, US 25-44)
14.2% waitlist signup rate from 850 landing page visitors - well above the 8-10% benchmark for health apps.
We tested 3 creatives: a 15-sec video showing voice logging in action crushed the static images we tested. The "magic moment" of speaking and watching calories appear is the hook.
4 waitlist signups replied unprompted asking "when does this launch?". Great sign!
🚀 Go To Market
👥 Early Users
Short-form Video: As a consumer app, TikTok/Instagram Reels showing the "magic moment" will be your path to acquiring users. Speak and watch calories appear. Demonstrates the core value prop in 15 seconds.
Communities: GLP-1 communities (r/Ozempic, r/Semaglutide, r/ozempicforweightloss collectively have hundreds of thousands of members). We lurked for a week and saw calorie tracking questions daily. These could be your early users!
Influencers: Partner with fitness micro-influencers to get the word out. At $500/post with 2% link clicks and 10% signup conversion, you should be able to convert over plenty of early users.
📈 Scaling Acquisition
ASO: App store optimization (ASO) targeting underserved keywords: "easy calorie tracker," "voice food log," "simple macro tracker" will be another great way to acquire users from app store search traffic.
Podcast Ads: Once month-1 retention hits 40%+, expand via podcast ads (Huberman, Mind Pump) which perform really well for apps like these.
🤑 Business Model
🏷️ Pricing
Free: Voice logging + daily summary + 7-day history
Pro ($7/month or $50/year): Unlimited history, macro coaching, meal plans, wearable sync
Our survey data found this was the perfect price point for users
🧮 Unit Economics
Target CaC (cost to acquire a customer/user): $3-5 (focus on organic growth via TikTok + referrals)
Target LTV (lifetime value of a user): $42 (12-month subscriber at 50% annual retention)
LTV:CAC ratio: 8-10x if you nail retention
If you can’t hit 40% retention in month-1, the economics collapse. You need to monitor that like a hawk.
⚔ Competitive Landscape
🏷️ Primary Competitors
MyFitnessPal (Free / $80/year): The 800-lb gorilla with 220M+ users and a 19M+ food database. Voice logging launched Dec 2024 but it's premium-only, US-only, English-only, and can't log custom foods.
Cal AI ($30/year): The hot photo-first upstart with 8M+ downloads. Fast and viral, but users report ~80% accuracy - complex meals are a struggle.
Lose It! (Free / $40/year): Clean design, strong community features. No voice option at all, photo accuracy is mixed.
🎯 The Gap
No one owns voice-first + AI-accurate + great UX. MyFitnessPal bolted voice on as an afterthought. Cal AI bet on photos. The window is open.
MyFitnessPal took 19 years to add voice - incumbents move slow. Whisper-level speech recognition is now cheap via API.
The opportunity: purpose-built voice experience from day one, not a feature tacked onto a legacy app.
✅ Verdict: GO
The pain is real - 70% drop-off rates don't lie. The market is massive ($5B today, $14B by 2033). Our smoke test showed strong pull at 14.2% signup with unprompted "when does this launch?" replies. The competitive window is wide open.
Risks: Voice accuracy is make-or-break. If you can't reliably parse "handful of almonds" into ~23 almonds (164 calories), you're dead. This isn't a "move fast and break things" product - it's a "get accuracy to 92%+ before you scale" product.
Who should build this: A technical founder who's personally felt the pain of calorie tracking and is obsessive over tracking accuracy. If you've never rage-quit MyFitnessPal, this isn't for you.
🫵 Your Thoughts
So…what did you think? Should we do more of these? We have tons of ideas to make them 10x better (building working products, sharing more raw data etc.). Let us know what you think:
Should we continue with the Fully Baked editions on Sunday?
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