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- Startup Ideas #387: People Predictions, Nano-influencers...
Startup Ideas #387: People Predictions, Nano-influencers...
Plus Making +$100m From Selling Exclusivity
Welcome to Half Baked, the newsletter serving up startup ideas as hotly anticipated as The Social Network 2 being released 😱
We’re firing up a creator program at Half Baked where we want to pay our readers to send us subscribers, more details here!
Let’s goooo 🚀
In today’s edition:
💡 A prediction we have about prediction markets
📈 Why brands are moving away from micro-influencers
🛠️ Using Higgsfield AI to generate ultra-realistic images
🤑 Making +$100m from selling exclusivity
🍻 Making reading more accessible for the younger generation
🔮 Predictions Market for People
Stake on me
Available domain: Futurepool.co
The Opportunity: Prediction markets are on fire right now. With Kalshi raising $185M at a $2B valuation this week, it’s clear that betting on future events is becoming more and more mainstream. But as the space matures, one thing feels inevitable: vertical unbundling. Just like social media fragmented into LinkedIn, Instagram, and TikTok, prediction markets will splinter into niche platforms. What will the first vertical be you ask? Well this super viral tweet gave us an idea. It opens “I bet my life-savings Roy Lee will become a billionaire by 2029”. But what if the author could actually bet his life savings on this? Could you create a prediction market where you exclusively bet on founders and creators’ future success? We think so. Here’s how.
The Solution:
In a line: A social prediction market where individuals trade contracts based on the outcomes of people’s future outcomes.
Product:
📲 Download the app and create a profile.
📈 Trade “futures” on individuals based on verifiable milestones (podcast launch, funding raised, net worth etc). Markets resolve when verified outcomes occur.
🧠 See what your friends and experts are predicting. Follow “smart money” users with high accuracy.
🤑 Over time you could expand where users could invest in creators or people on the platform too, not just speculate.
Business Model: Take a cut from each trade + premium features (early access to markets, trend alerts, API).
End Goal: Sell to Robinhood, Kalshi or Polymarket for a 10-20x revenue multiple.
Rate this idea: |
👀 What kind of founder are you, really?
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If you’re an entrepreneur, building a team, or just curious to learn more… try the survey here (it’s freakishly accurate). Half Baked readers will receive a free 15-minute debrief from Predictive Success.
🤏 The Rise of the Nano-Influencer
The Trend: Brands loved working with big influencers, until they realised that micro-influencers, people with 10k - 50k followers, got much better engagement from their audiences. But now? They’re going even smaller, with brands pouring money into so-called “nano-influencers”. With followings of 1k to 10k, they’re creators with hyper-niche, hyper-engaged audiences. We’ll probably move onto “pico-influencers” next…
Opportunities:
Nano-CRM: Create a CRM tool for managing nano-influencer campaigns at scale
Nano Matchmaker: A Tinder-style app that pairs small brands with nano-influencers based on niche, values, and engagement, not just follower count.
🖼️ Using Higgsfield AI to Generate Ultra-Realistic Images
The Tool: If you’ve been on Twitter today then you’ve almost certainly seen Higgsfield’s new image model at work. It’s called Soul and it’s scary good at creating ultra-realistic images, particularly cool artsy ones that you might see on Pinterest. I still don’t really know what Pinterest is, but I can still see it getting flooded with these images…
Step-by-step:
Go to Higgsfield.ai
Go to “create” in the menu and select image.
Write your prompt, ensure you have Soul selected, then hit “Generate”
Note: Higgsfield doesn’t offer a free trial, it’s $19 per month at the moment to generate images. We’ll reach out and see if we can get a free trial for Half Baked readers!
🛠️ The Easy-to-use CRM Tool
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Designed by sales pros, it helps you manage leads, track deals, and automate tasks, so you can spend less time clicking and more time closing.
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🤐 Making +$100m From Selling Exclusivity
The Idea: Back in 2014, Daniel Gendelman, a former military intelligence officer turned entrepreneur, noticed something. Dating apps were booming, but they were built for the masses. What if, instead, you built one for the elites? So, Daniel quietly launched a secretive dating app just for celebrities and high-profile creatives. To join, you needed two referrals and had to pass a social media vetting process by a team of 500 anonymous gatekeepers. This was the beginning of Raya.
The Execution:
February 2015: Daniel launched the MVP quietly on iOS, so quietly that he didn’t even reveal his own identity. The app was invite-only and the mystery became part of the allure.
2015-2016: Celebrities and influencers began joining (mostly actors, musicians, models). The app quickly earned its “Illuminati Tinder” nickname.
2018: Raya grew quickly through scarcity and word-of-mouth, amassing over 10,000 members and 100,000+ on their waiting list. The platform maintained its exclusivity by only accepting 8% of applicants to the platform.
2020: As Clubhouse and exclusive social apps trended, Raya hit a new cultural high. Rumors started swirling that even Leonardo DiCaprio was on the app (no doubt with his age preference set below 25).
2023: Raya’s reported valuation hit the $100M+ range. Still bootstrapped, with zero outside funding. The riches are in the niches as they say.
All of which goes to prove that while everyone is out there building for the masses, sometimes it’s better to solve a very big problem for a small number of people.
📖 Sludge Books
Struggling to get yourself to read? Wish your novels came with an extra hit of dopamine?
Introducing the SludgeBook™ - the world’s first book where every second page is a lovingly hand-drawn mess of sludge content. It’s literature...with training wheels for your dopamine-starved brain.
SludgeBooks™ – finally, a reason to say “just one more page” and mean it
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🔍️ Founder Finds
🛠️ AI Tool: This is a super slick tool for using AI to make presentations
✖️ Trending Tweet: Sam Altman is not happy with the New York Times…
📹 Must-Watch: This interview with Satya Nadella where he discusses AI, hyperscaling and quantum computing is really great
🎁 Free Resource: Google has shared this cool doc with 601 real world use cases for AI
💬 Founder Quote: "Founders live in the future and build what’s missing." - Paul Graham
👥 From the Community
Marco Borgato is working on Zeno, an AI-powered second brain for YouTube
Arun Bhatia is building AskMedically, delivering research-backed answers to your health questions
Michael is currently building smush.ly, a bit.ly competitor with a lot more usability for marketing
Jeff Doan is kicking off a weekly email for global music discovery, Groove Global
P.S: DM or email me if you want your product featured here in future editions!
👋 That’s All Folks!
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